Pentagon’s “Replicator” Program Could Make a Big Impact on Domestic Drone Production

A few months back the Pentagon shared plans to develop “small, smart, [and] cheap” drones driven by AI.

How many? Lots and lots from what we know—thousands, and maybe even tens of thousands.

A swarm of 40 drones flying at a National Training Center in Fort Irwin, CA | Credit: 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment

The details were vague at first, but now we know that these drones will be part of a larger initiative called the “Replicator” program.

At its heart, the Replicator program was made to quickly ramp up U.S. defense technology so it can compete with China. At the moment, China has more than the U.S. of most everything defense-related, making for a massive stockpile of traditional weapons like missiles, ships, and crewed aircraft.

And the fact that China has more of these things really matters. A recent report found that the U.S. would run out of the munitions needed in just one week if it were to enter a battle over Taiwan, a shortage created in part by U.S. support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

To counter China’s stockpile of weapons, the Pentagon wants to create a huge new inventory of autonomous systems. The plan is to build fast and cheap, pumping out autonomous platforms at scale.

The term the Pentagon uses to describe this approach is using technology that’s attritable, which means technology that trades reliability for cost and speed of production. The end goal is to create a huge amount of AI-powered robotics for defense—drones included—within just 18-24 months.

The ‘replication’ isn’t just about production. We also aim to replicate and inculcate how we will achieve that goal, so we can scale whatever is most efficient, effective and relevant in the future, again and again.

– Kathleen Hicks, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense

The Pentagon has been intentionally vague about the specific types of autonomous systems it plans to make, citing security concerns.

But we know that drones are definitely on the list—and we know that it will decide which drones it plans to use in just a few weeks, by mid-December.

Ukraine’s Use of Drones Provides a Model for the Replicator Program

One driving factor in the creation of the Replicator program is the success Ukrainian forces have had with drones in their ongoing war with Russia.

By now, the use of both consumer and military drones by Ukraine is common knowledge—according to estimates, Ukrainian forces are losing as many as 10,000 drones a month.

Consumer drones have been a major factor in Ukraine’s strategy

By employing low-cost, easy-to-replace drones, Ukraine has demonstrated an ability to fight effectively against Russia’s outsized weaponry.

This is the takeaway for the Pentagon—and where that word attritable comes into play. Given Ukraine’s success, the war has had a big influence on how the Pentagon is thinking about what it really needs when it comes to catching up with China.

However, there are some uncertainties in the Pentagon’s thinking that thousands of autonomous robots could have the same impact in a war over Taiwan, which is the imagined scenario defining the defense ramp up. Whether off-the-shelf consumer and commercial drones can be as effective when fighting between islands, instead of overland, is yet to be seen.

How the Replicator Program Could Help the U.S. Drone Industry

A complicating factor in the Replicator program’s plan to quickly secure thousands of autonomous robots is that they currently can’t all be sourced in the U.S.

For obvious reasons, the drones needed can’t be sourced from the top drone producer in the world, which is China.

And this is where U.S. drone production faces a major opportunity.

If the Replicator program wants thousands of drones in 18 to 24 months, it will have to spend a lot of that money not only buying them, but potentially building the infrastructure to make building them that quickly possible.

The aggressive timeline of the Pentagon’s program is coupled with a strong desire to produce domestically—and the funds to back that up. In total, the Replicator program may have as much as $2.8 billion earmarked for buying and developing autonomous robotics.

We’ll counter (China’s) mass with mass of our own, but ours will be harder to plan for, harder to hit, harder to beat. With smart people, smart concepts, and smart technology, our military will be more nimble, with uplift and urgency from the commercial sector.

– Kathleen Hicks, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense

The Teal 2 | Credit: Teal Drones

Teal Drones, a U.S. drone company that has pivoted from making commercial drones to making platforms primarily for defense purposes, provides some helpful data.

According to Teal, it can currently make about 100-200 Teal 2s a month in its main factory, which is located in Salt Lake City. But, according to its CEO, it could ramp up to 1,000 a month if needed, so long as there was enough time and resources.

We have the process, the recipe to scale but it takes time. I think a positive of Replicator is that it will give our industrial base the ability to scale over some period of time.

– George Matus, CEO of Teal Drones

Recent reporting indicates that the Pentagon will make an initial decision about the drones it plans to use in the Replicator program in the next few weeks.

Although the decision may not be made public, it has the potential to have a major impact on the drone industry. Which is to say that, by 2025, the U.S. drone industry may have a much stronger supply chain than it ever has before.